According to the McCain Campaign Memo (Full memo Here)
McCAIN CAMPAIGN MEMO: READING THE EXIT POLLS
BILL McINTURFF, INTERNAL POLLSTER
Mon Nov 03 2008 16:53:14 ET
As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.
However, we want to remind the campaign that the media’s own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate’s support. Therefore, we would discourage a rush to judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of counties and precincts in a state.
Here are the key points to keep in mind when the exit poll data starts being leaked:
1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.
2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.
3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004.
4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.
5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls.
After the 2004 election, the National Election Pool completed a study investigating why the exit polls that year showed John Kerry over performing 5.5 net points better than the actual results showed him to have done. Their conclusion was that the primary reason the exit polls was that Kerry voters and Democrats were more likely to participate in the exit polls.
“Our investigation of the differences between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote count point to one primary reason: in a number of precincts a higher than average Within Precinct Error most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. There has been partisan overstatements in previous elections, more often overstating the Democrat, but occasionally overstating the Republican.
We believe that this will hold true this year. The recent Fox News survey showed that 46% of Obama voters said they were very likely to participate in the exit polls, while just 35% of McCain supporters are.
(h/t Chicagoans Against Obama)
From the time I entered the Naval Academy at age seventeen I have been privileged and honored to serve my country.
Throughout my years of service, I’ve been faced with challenges where I could have taken the easy way out and given up. But I’m an American and I never give up. Instead, I choose to show courage and stand up and fight for the country I love. Today, I am asking you to stand with me and to fight for our country’s future.
Our country faces enormous challenges and our next president must be ready to lead on day one. My lifetime of experience has prepared me to lead our great nation. I’m prepared to bring solutions to our economic challenges, bring our troops home in victory and improve our nation’s healthcare system.
Time and time again, my country has saved my life and I owe her more than she has ever owed me. I have chosen to show my gratitude through a life of service to our country and tomorrow, you will have a choice before you.
I humbly ask you to make the choice that will allow me to serve my country a little while longer by casting your vote to elect me as your next President of the United States.
Finally, I ask that you never forget that much has been sacrificed to protect our right to vote. We must never forget those Americans who, with their courage, with their sacrifice, and with their lives, have protected our freedom. It is my great hope that you will exercise your right to vote as an American tomorrow.
I thank you for your kind support, your dedication to our cause, and most importantly I thank you for your vote.
With sincere appreciation,
(h/t TD Blog)
John McCain believes we must keep taxes low to reward hard work and create jobs for all Americans.
Barack Obama wants to "spread the wealth around" and is more interested in controlling who gets your piece of the pie than he is in growing the pie.
John McCain has a comprehensive economic plan that will create millions of good American jobs, ensure our nation’s energy security, get the government’s budget and spending practices in order, and bring relief to American consumers.
The Obama tax increase would come at the worst possible time for America, and especially for small businesses like the one Joe the Plumber dreams of owning. The small businesses Senator Obama would tax provide 16 million jobs in America. And a sudden tax hike for those businesses will kill jobs at a time when we need to be creating more jobs.
John McCain will break from the past to lead a great national campaign to put us on a course for energy independence. No problem is more urgent today than our dependence on foreign oil.
Barack Obama voted for the same policies that created the problem. He voted for the energy bill promoted by President Bush and Vice President Cheney, which gave even more breaks to the oil industry.
John McCain will make health care more available, affordable and responsive to patients and he will give families more choices over their care.
Barack Obama’s plan will harm employer coverage, continues the push toward government-run health care and will damage private coverage.
John McCain has a record of working to end Washington’s stagnant, unproductive partisanship. He will end wasteful government spending and put the government back on the side of the American people.
The American people have not seen Barack Obama forsake partisanship for progress. In his short time in the Senate, Congressional Quarterly shows he voted with the Democrat Party 97 percent of the time.
John McCain is committed to and has long fought for restoring fiscal discipline by eliminating wasteful government spending. Out of control spending has resulted in a weaker dollar, raising the cost of groceries and gas and killing jobs. John McCain will rein in federal spending to help our families in tough economic times.
Barack Obama plans to increase spending by nearly a trillion dollars. Already in three short years in the Senate, he has requested nearly a billion dollars in pork projects for his state and has been an eager participant in this corrupt system.
John McCain will shake up failed school bureaucracies with competition, empower parents with choice, remove barriers to qualified instructors, attract and reward good teachers.
Barack Obama wants our schools to answer to unions and entrenched bureaucracies.
John McCain had the judgment to understand that America’s strategy in Iraq was failing and the courage to call for a dramatic change. That strategy is now working, and America is succeeding in Iraq.
Barack Obama opposed the new strategy and predicted wrongly that it would fail. He voted to deny critical funds to our men and women fighting in Iraq.
I watched this video over on Backyard Conservative’s site. Unfortunately, I’m not able to post shockwave or java videos on WordPress, so the link takes you to NBC.
I have to tell you though, McCain having a sense of humor never really occurred to me. I mean, yes, I figured he was human and shared funny stories and things like that with his close friends and family. Duh. But to see his comedic timing on such things as the SNL skits, and his delivery at the Alfred Smith dinner, I’m truly amazed and pleased. I think it’s important for our leaders to be able to take a joke, and to poke fun at themselves too. It’s not good to take yourself so seriously all the time. (*cough* Barack) A well developed sense of humor is a great and needed quality in a leader. And McCain’s got it.
Good thing too, since late night comedian’s jokes about McCain outnumber their jokes about Obama more than 7-1.
I’m just sayin’.